Several Hundred People on Longboat Key Are Going to Die

BLAKE FLEETWOOD
Guest Columnist
opinion@lbknews.com

This is not to create a panic, but to make sure that everyone — government, individuals, and businesses — must continue doing all they can to guarantee that this will not happen. It’s a worst case scenario. Nobody, not the doctors, public officials, or even the CDC, knows what the real numbers will be, but this is what has happened in other places.

I can never say this enough: our island is especially vulnerable. We are an aged population, in our seventies and eighties.

The grim statistic:  85% of the people who die of Covid19 are over 65.

And if you are over 65 and become infected; 6 to 10% of us will die. If you are sick enough to go on a ventilator, 83% will die.

Calvin Sun, an emergency room doctor in NYC said “I try and keep infected people off ventilators, because I know that most of them will die.”

The president has stated that we have reached the “peak” due to his swift actions, and we are doing great.

Yet this week the country experienced the highest death toll ever.

Medical authorities are not saying it’s time to get back to normal. Florida’s surgeon general says we have to keep social distancing and wearing masks until there’s a vaccine — in about a year!

Florida is increasing its positive infections by about 700 per day. It has over 25,000  so far, and deaths are over 700 and growing. Florida lags behind 20 other states in testing: only people with symptoms are tested, excluding people who are not sick, but might be spreading the virus to other folks.

Contact tracing is very important and is still not widely done in Sarasota or Longboat Key.  Germany has a lower death rate than the US due to widespread contact tracing. According to the Johns Hopkins University, the Covid19 death rate is 2.96% in Germany and 4.81% in the U.S.

Florida will not reach its peak until May 3 under current conditions, with 112 deaths per day, according to the University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics.

If restrictions are lifted, Covid Act Now projects that Sarasota hospitalizations will soar from April 15 to May 11, peaking at 4500 cases. High hospitalizations will persist into July. With lifted restrictions, Covid Act Now predicts that 70% of the  Sarasota population will be infected over the next three months — with 4000 deaths. This scenario will lead to deadly consequences for the elderly on Longboat Key.

If lax “stay at home” restrictions are applied, 52% of Sarasota residents will be infected — with 3000 deaths. With stricter “stay at home” restrictions, only 8% will be infected — with less than 1000 deaths.

Longboat Key, which is behind the rest of the county and state, will probably peak a few weeks into May.

We have been lazy. What we call staying home and quarantining pales in comparison to what they did in China. It is antithetical to the American way of life.  We have not even started to shut down the island, as other vulnerable towns have.

Every day thousands of cars and trucks pour outsiders onto the island. I have personally seen construction crews building new houses, and landscapers galore. They are not social distancing. They are not wearing gloves and masks. They are not getting the message. Governor Ron DeSantis calls them essential workers.

They are mostly young and probably won’t die. But they will stop at  Publix, or Whitney Beach for their morning coffee and donuts or go to the toilet. They will touch things, leaving microbes, and we residents will be made vulnerable.

Publix still doesn’t require its workers to wear masks and gloves.

Mary Anne, from Publix, told me today, “some are, and some are not. It’s all up to the individuals”

This is not a decision that private business, or individuals, should make.  Longboat Key should issue an emergency Executive Order mandating the wearing of gloves and masks in all stores for workers and shoppers, Delivery people should also be wearing masks and gloves. Let the courts decide if it’s legal.

Longboat Key standards should be stricter than state standards, because we have so many old people, like me. We are essentially a retirement community.

Grocery workers are the unsung heroes of this pandemic. Many are getting sick. In many other towns and counties masks and gloves are mandatory for grocery workers.

Tom Harmer, the Longboat Key city manager, should be commended for encouraging Publix to arrange for curbside grocery pickup. “It works. My wife did it twice this week, but you have to go through Instacart.

But there are still gaping holes in the social safety net on Longboat Key.

543 people  have tested positive for Covid19 in Sarasota and Manatee counties. There are probably a couple hundred more who are mildly sick and don’t bother to test. And most dangerously, there are hundreds more asymptomatic, who are walking around, transmitting to others.                                                                                               

So far Longboat Key has been lucky. There have been only 12 positive cases and surprisingly no new positives in the last two weeks. Unfortunately, there are many more positives out there, and they/we don’t know it.

We cannot relax our vigilance until testing, and contact tracing, is easily and freely available for everyone on Longboat Key and a vaccine is found.

originally published at http://www.lbknews.com/2020/04/19/several-hundred-people-on-longboat-key-are-going-to-die/?utm_source=LBK+%26+Sarasota+City+News+Newsflash+4.19.20&utm_campaign=LBK+sent+1&utm_medium=email